Jamie A. Upson, CFP®, CFMC, AAMS · Stonehearth Capital Management
If You Invested $100 in 1928…
Picture this…
You time travel back to the year 1928.
Jazz spills out of crowded clubs. New automobiles rumble down busy city streets. Radios glow in living rooms for the first time.
In your pocket is a crisp $100 bill. You have the opportunity to invest it, then fast-forward about a century, and see what happens.
But you can only pick one of three options:
- Tuck it safely in a mattress where it feels certain
- Lend it to the U.S. government for steady interest
- Or let it ride in the stock market, where fortunes seem to be rising by the day
You also have an advantage. You know what's coming…
The Great Depression. World War Two. Stagflation. Decades of uncertainty.
Which path do you choose?
The difference between those decisions is dramatic. And the lesson still matters today.
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Three choices. One century. A powerful lesson about time and compounding.
Choice #1: The Mattress
In 1928, keeping your money in cash might have felt like a responsible choice. No market swings. No headlines. No surprises. Your $100 stays exactly where you left it. In uncertain times, certainty has real appeal. When the future feels unpredictable, holding onto what you have can seem like the safest path forward.
The Dollars Stayed. The Value Didn't.
But over the next 100 years, that decision quietly unraveled. In the late 1920s, $100 could cover a month's rent in most parts of the country with money left over for clothes, groceries, and transportation.¹ Fast forward to today, and that same $100 might cover a family dinner out or a single tank of gas. The dollars stayed the same. What they could buy did not. Inflation worked slowly, but it worked relentlessly.
Choice #2: Lend to Uncle Sam
In 1928, this might have felt like the grown-up choice. Not hiding cash. Not chasing big swings. Just steady interest, paid year after year. Backed by the U.S. government. Predictable. Measured. Boring in the best way. If you wanted progress without drama, this box probably looked pretty appealing.
Progress, Not Fireworks
And over time, it worked. Earning about 4.5% per year on average since 1928, that $100 would have grown to over $7,700.² Not flashy. Not explosive. But real growth. The kind that rewards patience. The kind that builds slowly and keeps going.
Choice #3: The Stock Market
In 1928, this choice took nerve. Shares look pricey. Shoeshine boys pitch stock tips. And you, the time traveler, knows what's coming. A historic crash in 1929. A global depression. War. Oil shocks. Recessions. Decades where staying invested would have felt uncomfortable, even reckless. This was not the "sleep easy" option.
From $100 to $1.2 Million
But over time, patience changed everything. Earning about 10% per year on average since 1928, your original $100 would have grown to almost $1.2 million.² Not because the journey was smooth. It wasn't. But because compounding, given enough time, can turn steady participation into extraordinary growth.
You don't need a time machine to benefit from compounding. You just need a plan and the patience to stick with it.
What Nearly a Century of Investing Reveals
This little thought experiment is powerful.
But it's still just that… a thought experiment.
Real life doesn't move in straight lines.
Returns aren't guaranteed.
Taxes, fees, access to investments, and personal decisions all shape outcomes.
And no one in 1928 knew how the next century would unfold.
But what history does show is something simpler. Time matters. Discipline matters. Diversification matters.
There's no way to know exactly what happens tomorrow. But we can decide how we prepare for it.
Sincerely,
Jamie A. Upson, CFP®, CFMC, AAMS
Stonehearth Capital Management
https://www.stonehearthcapital.com
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Jamie A. Upson, CFP®, CFMC, AAMS
Stonehearth Capital Management
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Jamie A. Upson, CFP®, CFMC, AAMS
Stonehearth Capital Management
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Sources
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Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026 [URL: https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uiug.30112046177546&seq=252]
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Aswath Damodaran, 2026 [URL: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/] Returns reflect geometric average historical returns from the "Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate and Gold" dataset, "Returns by year" tab. Stock returns based on S&P 500 including dividends. Bond returns based on U.S. T-Bonds. Growth figures calculated by applying geometric average annual returns to a $100 investment starting in 1928.
Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
This communication is not an offer to sell, or solicitation of offers to buy, securities. Investments entail significant risks and are suitable only for certain investors as part of an overall diversified investment strategy. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All statements made herein speak only as of the date they were originally made. Information included herein does not constitute investment advice and should not be viewed as current or past recommendation to buy or sell any securities or adopt any investment strategy. Please do not send trade or check requests through email. Stonehearth Capital Management, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.
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Jamie A. Upson, CFP®, CFMC, AAMS
Stonehearth Capital Management
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