What conclusions should we draw from a rocky third quarter?
Progress is not linear.
Though worries about the economy dogged markets this quarter, all is not lost.
There is plenty to be optimistic about.
The economy is still chugging along and the labor market continues to show strength.5
The major challenge ahead is that the Fed must maintain a delicate balance between keeping interest rates high enough to fully douse inflation while not triggering a recession.
Until that job is done, markets are likely to respond with volatility to any news that points to higher interest rates.
Will we still see a recession in 2023?
That’s hard to say because by the time we know the answer, we’ll likely already be in 2024.
Plenty of economists believe that the risk of a recession is low.3
Others see red flags and think that we won’t be able to avoid a recession this year or next.3
We’ll just have to wait and see which prediction is correct.
Bottom line: we’re watching the data, staying flexible, and looking for opportunities.
Questions about markets or your portfolio? Please reach out. We'd be happy to chat.