The

Financial

Quarterly

Quarter 4 2024

David Vigil, CFP®, CIMA®

https://www.vigilwealthmanagement.com/

Vigil Wealth Management

Stocks boomed again in 2024, delivering a strong performance powered by interest rate cuts and hopes for economic growth.¹

Can the bull market keep running? Is a correction hiding around the corner?

We'll dive into what happened in the final months of 2024 and what we might see in the first months of 2025.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Year?

S&P 500

23.3^%

The broader U.S. market surged for the second year in a row, reaching multiple new highs in 2024.¹

NASDAQ

28.6^%

The tech-focused NASDAQ soared on lower interest rates and AI enthusiasm.¹

DOW 30

12.9^%

The blue-chip Dow also rose with overall market trends.¹

Line graph titled "Trends That Drove Markets in 2024" showing a steady increase from January to December 2024 labeled with 2024 financial events on the line.

Looking Ahead

What Factors May Influence Markets in the Months to Come?

Let's take a look ahead at some of the factors that we'll be watching in the weeks and months ahead.

Interest Rates

Lower interest rates have been key to market optimism, but the Federal Reserve may hold back on cuts in 2025. Slower cuts may be "priced in" by markets, but signs the Fed is getting cold feet could trigger a pullback.²

Economic Data

Inflation, unemployment, and growth indicators will be in focus all year. Despite recession worries, the economy is set for further growth in 2025.³

Political Priorities

Uncertainty around tax reform, a new debt ceiling debate, and tariffs are likely to impact markets in Q1.²

Earnings

With markets hitting multiple record highs in 2024, corporate earnings will need to keep up to support pricey valuations. If they don't, markets may retreat.⁴

"Markets surged in back-to-back years. Bumps likely lie ahead."

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Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

2024 had a lot to celebrate: inflation finally dropped to more normal rates, economic growth was strong, interest rates fell, and markets soared to new highs.

In fact, 2024 is an example of why staying invested through rocky markets has historically paid off for long-term investors.

However, after markets boomed two years in a row, it's natural to ask: Should we brace for a rocky 2025?

The past doesn't predict the future, and none of us have crystal balls, but we can take stock of the market environment and make educated guesses.

There are a lot of reasons for optimism in 2025.

Many analysts believe markets will have another strong year, including those who were recently predicting a downturn ahead.⁴

If consumers continue to spend, companies continue to invest, and the economy continues to grow, we could absolutely see another strong year for markets.

There are also some challenges ahead.

Markets hit multiple record highs in 2024, giving us some very high valuations. That often means markets are primed for a correction if earnings and business expectations don't keep up.

There's also uncertainty around inflation, the Fed's next move, and the new administration's priorities. If tariffs cut into business profits or inflation surges again, investors could get spooked and cause markets to retreat sharply.

Bottom line: we're monitoring economic data and watching for opportunities. We'll keep you informed throughout the quarter and reach out as needed with any strategy shifts.

Questions about markets or your portfolio? Please reach out. I'd be happy to chat.

David Vigil, CFP®, CIMA®

Vigil Wealth Management

(904) 327-8000

david@vigilwm.com

Sources:

Chart Sources:

The S&P 500 is a stock index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged composite index of over 2,500 common equities listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index that tracks 30 large, publicly traded American companies.

All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This content may contain projections, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements that do not reflect actual results and are based on hypotheses, assumptions, and historical financial information.

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific situation with a qualified tax professional.

Vigil Wealth Management, LLC (“Vigil Wealth” or the "Advisor") is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Vigil Wealth and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. For additional information, please visit our website, www.vigilwealthmanagement.com.

This content is intended to provide general information about Vigil Wealth. It is not intended to offer or deliver investment advice in any way. Information regarding investment services is provided solely to gain an understanding of our investment philosophy and our strategies and to be able to contact us for further information.

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The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance, and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

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