The WWM Quarterly Market Update

4th Quarter 2022

Your Team at Woodson Wealth Management
Woodson Wealth Management
Office: (760) 566-8533 or Text: (858) 923-4500

Markets had a very rough 2022 when inflation, interest rates, and recession fears weighed. Let's take a look at how markets performed last year and what we might see in the first months of 2023.1

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Year?

S&P 500


The broader U.S. market ended 2022 down significantly.1



The tech-focused NASDAQ plummeted as tech companies hit a wall of growth fears.1

DOW 30


The blue-chip stock index performed best out of the three majors, but still fell with the overall market.1

Looking Ahead

What Could We See Six to Nine Months Ahead?

U.S. Economic Outlook

Negative Positive

Risks: Aggressive interest rate hikes and ongoing global issues point to a tough 2023.
Opportunities: A recession does not appear imminent, and slowing inflation could drive growth and avoid a recession.2

Equity Outlook

Negative Positive

Risks: Higher interest rates and growth fears are likely to weigh on markets.
Opportunities: However, a Fed pivot could cause stocks to bounce back.3

Consumer Sentiment

Negative Positive

Risks: Inflation, layoff fears, and higher interest rates could dent optimism.
Opportunities: Demand ended 2022 strong, and if the trend continues, consumers could drive more growth.2

Monetary Policy

Negative Positive

Risks: Raising interest rates aggressively may slow economic growth.
Opportunities: Slowing inflation down (while painful) could increase confidence in the economy and spur demand.2

Geopolitical Risk

Negative Positive

Risks: The war in Ukraine and U.S.-China tensions could create more conflict in 2023.
Opportunities: Peace between Russia and Ukraine could ease the strain.4


Negative Positive

Risks: High inflation could persist, hurting consumer savings and driving further interest rate hikes by the Fed.
Opportunities: Inflation appears to be past its peak and stabilizing.5

"2023 offers both good news and bad news."

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Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

Plenty of risks remain as we kick off 2023 and volatility is likely over the next few months.

However, there are some potential bright spots ahead as well.

Inflation has likely peaked.5 The uncertainty of an election year is behind us. Equity valuations have dipped significantly from their highs.3

Does that mean that markets aren’t going to fall further? That’s not knowable.

While history teaches that inflation peaks often coincide with market bottoms, we still have a potential recession to contend with.6

However, a change in the Fed’s position toward interest rates or signs of a strong economy could definitely reward us with rallies.

Let’s talk about those recession fears.

The odds favor a recession this year. Historically, inflation rates above 5% mean the probability of recession spikes, especially when paired with a low unemployment rate.7

However, probabilities are not certainties. The economy could avoid a recession; if one comes, it could be shallow and short. U.S. consumers still look healthy and the job market is still robust.2

If we were to assign the first few months of 2023 a motto, we’d say: “Be flexible.” Let’s look for opportunities hiding in the uncertainty.

Questions? Set up a Complimentary Information Session with us here.

Your Team at Woodson Wealth Management
Office: (760) 566-8533 or Text: (858) 923-4500