The

Financial

Quarterly

Quarter 3 2025

Michelle Bertram

Bertram Financial

Markets soared for another quarter, solidifying the gains achieved in earlier in the year with multiple indexes hitting new highs.¹

Can stocks keep rallying?

Let’s take a look at the past quarter and discuss what could lie ahead in the final months of the year.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?

S&P 500

7.8^%

The broad market index notched its best third quarter since 2020.¹

NASDAQ

11.2^%

The tech-focused NASDAQ also turned in a great quarter, driven by soaring AI hopes.¹

DOW 30

5.2^%

The blue-chip Dow grew with the broader market and achieved its fifth straight month of gains.¹

Looking Ahead

What Factors May Influence Markets in the Months to Come?

Let’s take a look ahead at some of the factors that we’ll be watching in the weeks and months ahead.

Fiscal Policy

There are several components to this recent stimulus, the largest being the increase to the SALT deduction, no tax on overtime, no tax on tips and enhanced deductions for seniors. This may be a helpful offset to the current pressures that the consumer is facing.

Stock Returns

We also note the healthy outlook for stocks beyond Big Tech. History suggests that market concentration eventually gives way to broader participation, which bodes well for the average stock’s relative return from here.

Interest Rates

While the Fed Fund Rate is likely to go lower, the pace of cuts and the impact to longer-term borrowing costs is less certain. Indeed, short-term borrowing rates fell alongside the Fed’s September cut, but longer-term rates remained rangebound during the quarter.

AI

AI optimism, not yet euphoria. AI investment is large and growing, with markets setting new all-time highs as a result. While we see pockets of froth in unprofitable tech, meme stocks, and short squeezes, the broader stock market appears optimistic, but not yet euphoric.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism,
grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

~ Sir John Templeton

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Bottom Line

Key Takeaways

What should we make of another strong quarter when the underlying picture is more complicated?

There's a growing gap between market optimism and economic concerns. Stocks keep hitting new highs while growth concerns mount. This disconnect means surprises - in either direction - could drive significant market swings.

Concentration increases fragility. When a handful of stocks drive major market gains, as we're seeing now, the rally can reverse quickly if those leaders stumble. That’s why we focus on prudent strategies, rather than chasing a few winners.

Our outlook: stay balanced, stay patient. Market strength is encouraging, and we remain optimistic about the economy's long-term resilience.

We’re keeping an eye on market trends, and we’ll adjust portfolios as needed.

If you have any questions or concerns, let's talk.

If you would like to read the full quarterly report from our team, click here or watch the video here.

Michelle and Bev

Bertram Financial

608-987-1511

michelle@bertramfinancial.com

Sources:

Reuters, 2025 [URL:https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-fall-investor-jitters-over-looming-government-shutdown-2025-09-30/]

The S&P 500 is a stock index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged composite index of over 2,500 common equities listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index that tracks 30 large, publicly traded American companies.

All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This content may contain projections, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements that do not reflect actual results and are based on hypotheses, assumptions, and historical financial information.

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.

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