The Financial Quarterly

2nd Quarter 2022

David Carlson, CFP®, ChFC®, CKA®, MBA
https://soundinvest.us/
Sound Investment Management, LLC
(888) 500-0375

The second quarter of 2022 was extremely rough for markets, giving investors a grueling bear market ride over the last few months. Driving the losses were stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates, and recession concerns.1

However, there might be some hope ahead, if you’ll keep reading.

Let's take a look at how markets performed and what we might look forward to in the months to come.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?

S&P 500

16.45

The broader U.S. market sank on interest rate and economic concerns.1

NASDAQ

22.44

The tech-focused NASDAQ was clobbered by higher interest rates and pricey valuations.2

DOW 30

11.25

Blue chip stocks also dropped in Q2 along with the broader market.3

Looking Ahead

What Could We See Six to Nine Months Ahead?

These are challenging times to make predictions about the future. The following gauges represent a forward look at what some analysts think we might see over the next few months. Since a simple projection can’t represent all opinions or probabilities, we’ve highlighted risks and opportunities for each.

U.S. Economic Outlook

Negative Positive

Risks: High inflation, interest rate hikes, and ongoing geopolitical and supply chain issues could tip the U.S. into a recession.
Opportunities: A strong labor market, household wealth, and consumer spending could drive growth.4

Equity Outlook

Negative Positive

Risks: Uncertainty about interest rates and the economy are likely to further weigh on markets.
Opportunities: Strong corporate earnings could drive fundamental growth; stocks could bounce back if inflation stabilizes.5

Consumer Sentiment

Negative Positive

Risks: High prices and recession worries could dent confidence.
Opportunities: A still-healthy job market, high home values, and savings could drive strong sentiment.5,6

Monetary Policy

Negative Positive

Risks: The Federal Reserve may raise rates too high, too fast, triggering a “hard landing” by slowing growth too much.
Opportunities: The Fed could execute on its vision and successfully lower inflation without a recession.4,6

Geopolitical Risk

Negative Positive

Risks: War, death, and economic disruption in Ukraine may continue, causing continued uncertainty and damage.
Opportunities: A peaceful resolution may be found with Russia.4

Inflation

Negative Positive

Risks: High inflation could persist, changing consumer spending patterns and pushing the Fed to raise rates aggressively.
Opportunities: Slowing inflation could moderate interest rate hikes and relieve pressure on consumers.4,6

"Exiting markets during a downturn might be appealing, but you risk missing out on future growth."

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Bottom Line

Critical Takeaways for Savvy Investors

There’s quite a bit of hope ahead: we have a resilient economy, the jobs market remains healthy, and stocks could bounce back if inflation and interest rate hikes stabilize.  Bear markets are rough, but exiting a strategy now could cause long-term damage to your wealth if you miss the recovery.

What is challenging is separating our emotions from analysis of what might be coming (especially when we’re in murky and uncharted waters).  Here is an analogy that might be helpful:  Have you ever been whitewater rafting?  Imagine us in a raft, navigating a complex class IV rapid called “Scary Bear.” It’s got huge waves, big drops, hidden rocks, fallen trees, eddies, currents, hydraulics, and more.  We see a crowd of folks on the banks jumping up and down, hooting and hollering, and yelling advice.  “Go left!”  “Go right!”  “Don't fall out!!”  “WATCH OUT FOR THE BIG ROCK!!”  If we listened to everyone’s instructions, our raft would end up pinballing between rocks, spinning around in circles, and possibly even flipping over.  So, we read the river.  We develop a strategy that allows for a lot of flexibility in tackling the rapid.  We listen to our guide (i.e., financial advisor) and paddle together.  We also remember to relax and remember why we are here. That is the hard part. It is not always easy paddling in smooth waters.  We are facing A LOT of uncertainty this year, and it’s not likely to resolve into certainty any time soon. Like professional economists, we are looking at the data and making careful adjustments.  Times like these favor flexibility, resilience, and a focus on long-term goals.

I am reading the rapids and adjusting as conditions warrant.  Do you have questions? Please reach out. I would be happy to talk.

David Carlson, CFP®, ChFC®, CKA®, MBA
Sound Investment Management, LLC
(888) 500-0375
david@soundinvest.us