The
Financial
Quarterly
Quarter 2 2024
Urban Wealth Management Group®
Urban Wealth Management Group
Markets roared in Q2, driven by AI optimism and hopes of future interest rate cuts.1
Can stocks continue to rise in the second half of 2024?
Let's take a look at what happened in Q2 and what could be coming.
Looking Back
How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?
S&P 500
3.9%
The broader U.S. market turned in a solid quarter on sustained optimism.1
NASDAQ
8.3%
The tech-focused NASDAQ soared in Q2 on high-flying AI expectations.1
DOW 30
-1.7%
The blue-chip Dow lost ground in Q2, though it recovered in June.1
Looking Ahead
What Factors May Influence Markets in the Months to Come?
Let's take a look ahead at some of the factors that we'll be watching in the weeks and months ahead.
Interest Rates
Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2024. If analysts begin to fear the Fed is getting cold feet, markets may lose optimism and pull back.2
Economic Data
Economists are concerned about both lingering inflation and slowing growth.3 We'll be monitoring economic data for clues about what might happen next.
Recession Indicators
Though risks seem to have abated, a recession is still possible.4 We're watching data closely to help position our clients.
Politics
While markets typically shrug off elections, it's a presidential election year and political uncertainty could cause volatility.
"While markets still have room to grow, we're expecting volatility ahead."
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Bottom Line
Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors
Markets turned in a blockbuster performance in the first half of 2024.
Do the bulls still have room to run?
Or will interest rates, the election, and recession risks cause markets to stumble?
So far, it doesn't look like market trends are slowing down.
Tech optimism continues to rule, and strategists are still pricing in lower interest rates.5
However, we can expect volatility and some corrections ahead as traders sell and take profits.
If it looks like the Federal Reserve will keep rates high for longer, we might see a bigger pullback.
Recession risks are still above historical averages,4 so there's still a chance we'll see an economic slump.
We're watching data and trends closely.
Bottom line: We're cautiously optimistic (but still watchful) about where markets could go in the second half of 2024.
If you have any questions or concerns about markets, the economy, or your portfolio, please give me a call at (424) 277-2260.
Sources:
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/27/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-on-interest-rate.html
3. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gdp-us-economy/
4. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240618-u-s-business-cycle-barometer-recession-risk-remains-above-historical-norm-13151066
5. https://www.conference-board.org/brief/global-economy/fomc-analysis-june-2024
The S&P 500 is a stock index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged composite index of over 2,500 common equities listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index that tracks 30 large, publicly traded American companies.
All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
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Urban Wealth Management Group®
Urban Wealth Management Group
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