Rob Jacobs, Ph.D., CRPS™, CPFA · White Pine Financial
DEBUNKING INVESTMENT MYTHS:
What Doesn’t Drive Long-Term Returns
As someone who invests in their future, you're likely eyeing what drives investment returns.
But it’s all-too-easy to be distracted by a number of investment myths. These are nothing but short-term noise that can cause you to miss the big picture of long-term gains.
And it’s no one’s fault. These investment myths are so widespread that even seasoned pros might swear by them.
To make smarter money moves, you need to separate fact from fiction and focus on what really matters.
So, let's clear the air.
Scroll down to learn 3 BIG INVESTMENT MYTHS that, despite popular belief, won’t likely drive your returns.
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A MYTH-BUSTING GUIDE TO LONG-TERM RETURNS
WITH SO MANY FACTORS IMPACTING INVESTMENT RETURNS, IT’S TOUGH TO TELL WHAT'S REAL.
WHILE OFTEN THOUGHT TO INFLUENCE THE MARKET, THE FOLLOWING 3 MYTHS HAVE, HISTORICALLY, LITTLE-TO-NO BEARING ON LONG-TERM RETURNS.
MYTH
#1
EARNINGS REPORTS ARE A PRIMARY DRIVER OF INVESTMENT RETURNS.
FACT:
Investment returns and earnings reports have shown no correlation.
Each quarter, investors wait on pins and needles for their favorite companies to release earnings reports.
While these offer important updates on how the company is performing and their challenges ahead, they’re a poor barometer for long-term investment returns. And there’s a tendency to greatly overvalue earnings reports when considering a potential investment.
If earnings were an indicator of investment returns, we would expect to see earnings growth preceding a rise in investment returns.
But this isn’t the case.
Looking at the S&P Composite Index, we can see that earnings and returns do not align as expected. In fact, over the past century, there is almost no correlation between earnings growth and investment returns.1
Takeaway:
EARNINGS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO LIGHT CONSIDERATION, BUT DON’T LET THESE QUARTERLY CALLS INFLUENCE YOUR LONG-TERM INVESTING GOALS.
MYTH
#2
GEOPOLITICAL CRISES ARE LONG-TERM INVESTMENT NEGATIVES.
FACT:
A geopolitical crisis can cause minor, short-term declines, but usually has no effect on the long-term market outlook.
Regional tensions in Russia, the Middle East, and China are causing investors to fear another world war.
You might wonder if these fears are reason to be hesitant about your investments, but history shows that while these occurrences may cause temporary volatility, the market is quite resilient to even the most negative geopolitical events.
In the short-term, the market tends to drop 1% following a geopolitical crisis event, with the total average drawdown being only 4.7% to the negative. When looking at the long-term effects of such events, the outlook is even more optimistic. The average market return in the 12-month period following a major geopolitical crisis was +2.1%, displaying just how resilient markets are, and how these events only had a short-term impact on returns.2
Takeaway:
GEOPOLITICAL CRISES ARE SHORT-TERM BLIPS ON THE LONGER-TERM RADAR OF INVESTING.
MYTH
#3
PERIODS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OR LOW VALUATIONS ARE SUSTAINABLE IN THE RIGHT CONDITIONS.
FACT:
Stock valuations almost always gravitate back toward their long-term averages.
When examining price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples over time, it appears that stocks can go through periods of extremely high (and low) valuations, but these are never sustained. As seen in the chart below, the 25-year average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.4, and even though the market has fluctuated above and below this average, valuations usually revert back toward this average.3
Takeaway:
EXTREME VALUATIONS WILL LIKELY STEADY OVER TIME, SO USE CAUTION WHEN ADJUSTING YOUR STRATEGY DURING THESE DRASTIC PERIODS.
“Patience is the companion of wisdom.”
FINANCIAL LESSON:
AVOID THE HYPE. PRACTICE THE FUNDAMENTALS. FOCUS ON THE LONG-TERM
If factors like earnings reports and geopolitical events don’t influence stock returns, then what does?
For long-term investors, fundamentals are still the bread and butter of valuing stocks. This includes earnings growth, dividends, and cash flows.
The market will always fluctuate based on recent news and events; however, understanding how much weight to give what you hear (or scroll through) can help you make decisions with a greater sense of confidence.
If you’re still curious about how to value stocks or invest in the market, partnering with a financial professional is the best way to get––and stay––on track.
To remaining observant,
P.S. Sign up for my emails. My subscribers get my best insights!
Rob Jacobs, Ph.D., CRPS™, CPFA
White Pine Financial
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Rob Jacobs, Ph.D., CRPS™, CPFA
White Pine Financial
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Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
The information provided is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to be and should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or other professional advice. The contents do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
White Pine Financial is not providing personalized financial advice through this content. The information presented is based on sources we believe to be reliable; however, we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. All information expressed herein is subject to change without notice and should be independently verified for timeliness, accuracy, and suitability.
Investment involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Before making any investment, a thorough analysis and consideration of your specific financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance are recommended. Please consult with qualified financial, legal, and tax professionals regarding your individual circumstances before making any decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. No current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly will be beneficial, profitable, or equal to corresponding indicated performance levels.
White Pine Financial is a registered investment advisor. For more information about our advisory services, please contact us at team@whitepinefinancial.com.
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Rob Jacobs, Ph.D., CRPS™, CPFA
White Pine Financial
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