The

Financial

Quarterly

Quarter 2 2025

The Miller Financial Group

https://www.tmfg.com

Markets came roaring back in the second quarter after a bruising start to the year, with indexes hitting new record highs.¹

Can stocks keep rallying in the face of tariffs and growth fears?

Let’s review what happened in Q2 and what could lie ahead for investors.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?

S&P 500

10.6^%

The broad market index notched a new record high during a stellar quarter.¹

NASDAQ

17.8^%

The tech-focused NASDAQ soared as investors regained their optimism.¹

DOW 30

5.0^%

The blue-chip Dow grew with the broader market, turning in a solid performance.¹

Looking Ahead

What Factors May Influence Markets in the Months to Come?

These are some of the factors that we’ll be watching in the months ahead:

Tariffs

Despite months of negotiations, the actual implementation of tariffs remain unclear and the uncertainty continues to weigh on investor expectations.²

Economic Growth

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, slowing more than expected. However, current estimates suggest that growth rebounded in Q2.³

Labor Market

While headline job numbers appear solid, a closer look at the data reveals signs of weakness that could affect the economy. We'll be watching the trends closely.⁴

Interest Rates

Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If the Fed holds to its rate-cutting plan, it could indicate optimism about the economy. On the other hand, a continued pause could signal that policymakers fear a return of inflation.⁵

“Positive quarters are welcome, but they're just one chapter in a much longer story. Patience and perspective matter.”

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Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

What should we make of this remarkable turnaround after Q1's volatility?

Markets defied expectations, but the rally raises some questions. Q2's strong performance shows markets can bounce back quickly. But this rebound happened against a background of persistent tariff uncertainty and economic growth worries.

Economic fundamentals may be telling a different story. The economy actually shrank in Q1, and the labor market may be showing underlying weakness.

Policy wildcards remain in play. Trade policy keeps evolving unpredictably after months of negotiations, while Fed decisions will likely hinge on incoming data. Markets may react quickly to policy surprises, particularly if tariff policy gains clarity or if the Fed shifts course on interest rates.

Questions about markets or your portfolio? Please reach out—We'd be happy to discuss.

Sources:

Reuters, 2025 [URL: https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-futures-climb-record-highs-trade-optimism-2025-06-30/]
CNBC, 2025 [URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html]
CBS News, 2025 [URL: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gdp-report-first-quarter-2025-declined-commerce-department/]
Reuters, 2025 [URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-job-growth-expected-slow-june-unemployment-rate-forecast-rise-2025-07-03/]
Goldman Sachs, 2025 [URL: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-may-cut-rates-earlier-than-expected]

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